Brandeis Stories

By Dave Marino
October 29, 2024

It’s a busy time for Allan Lichtman ’67, the so-called “prediction professor” who has built a national profile correctly forecasting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections since 1984 using his Keys to the White House prediction system. Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at American University.

This year, Lichtman forecasts that Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump. And continuing a decades-long tradition, he explained his pick at a Brandeis Alumni Club of Washington, D.C. event. This year, David Mark ’95, managing editor of the Washington Examiner, joined him in conversation.

Here are five key takeaways from their lively discussion with alumni and each other.

After Democrats replaced President Joe Biden with Harris, Lichtman initially feared losing the incumbency advantage could spell trouble. However, the Democrats mitigated that risk by rallying behind Harris, avoiding an internal party conflict that could have cost them crucial votes.

Lichtman emphasized that polling often fluctuates and doesn’t accurately account for who will actually vote. Some voters are still undecided, and polls underestimated Republican strength in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.

“This time, they could be underestimating Democratic voting strength — we just don’t know. Some voters don’t respond to pollsters, and they may lie,” added Lichtman. “The election is still a few weeks away, so they may not have focused, and they may change their minds.”

While the former president is often viewed as a showman, Lichtman argues Trump lacks broad charisma and appeals to a narrow base. Harris, who would be the first female president as well as the first Asian and the first Black woman elected to the presidency, embodies historic change. Women are now the majority of the electorate, and America is becoming a majority-minority nation.

While campaign events and speeches draw much attention, Lichtman argues that the governing of the incumbent party is more predictive of election outcomes.

“It’s not the day-to-day events of the campaign that matter; it’s the long-term performance and strength of the party in power,” Lichtman said.

As a presidential historian, Lichtman notes that this is the most bitterly partisan election he’s seen in his lifetime. He’s received more hate mail and backlash than ever, which he largely attributes to the toxic political atmosphere created by Donald Trump.

“Every day, I get the most vulgar, scurrilous, antisemitic, mean, violent kind of feedback,” he said.