Yaneer Bar-Yam, PhD
President
New England Complex Systems Institute
October 1, 2018
What Can Science Say About Where the World Is Going?
When thinking about complex systems in terms of the context of this speaker series, one might assume that the phrase refers mainly to the sciences. However, society itself is a complex system. How cultures interact, how countries negotiate and how diseases spread are all examples of complex systems. In his talk, Dr. Bar-Yam explored how complex systems research can move beyond the brain to society and culture, and the challenges facing the globe in the 21st century.
Humanitarian challenges affect society on large and small scales. Global interconnections allow local problems to spread internationally. Challenges this complex require new methods of complex systems science. By understanding the interdependences in society, the most important and effective levers for change can be identified. These techniques allow aid efforts to target the underlying causes, rather than the most apparent symptoms.
Past work by the New England Complex Systems Institute has identified the causes and consequences of global hunger, ethnic violence, and the threat of pandemics. There are many factors determining the price and availability of food, but our research identified speculation and ethanol mandates in the US as the major drivers of skyrocketing global food prices. These food price spikes also correspond with and predict civil unrest and revolutions, as was seen in the Arab Spring. Instances of ethnic violence may seem embedded in the particularities of local history and clashing cultures, but our analysis shows spatial geography is a powerful predictor of violent confrontations. This information can inform policies for diffusing ethnic tension, such as establishing appropriate boundaries and levels of local autonomy. Pandemics are one of the gravest consequences of global connections like international air travel, but understanding these connections can be the key to preventing such outbreaks. Our ongoing work on Ebola virus disease also stresses the importance of local, door-to- door connections for monitoring and stopping epidemics.
Because complex systems science is founded on universal mathematical principles, it can be applied to a wide variety of seemingly unrelated humanitarian challenges. The obstacles to the well-being of society can come from external environment threats or conflicts between the individuals comprising society themselves. Seemingly local events can have large- scale, even global, effects. The tools and methodologies of this science allow us understand and find solutions to humanity’s most pressing challenges.